# We Helped With This R Studio Programming Homework: Have A Similar One?

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Category Programming R | R Studio College Solved Assignment Statistics

## Short Assignment Requirements

The object of the project is to forecast IIT alumni donations to the annual giving campaign in Fall of 2014, using data from past donation history, demographics and information about the ask strings in mailed solicitations.You may build a forecasting model using the dataset in the CSV file donations on Blackboard. The dataset contains records of the donations returned by each alumnus during the period from September 2014 to January 2015. Donations are categorized by which campaign the donor responded to (Mail, Phone or website).You are to provide separate equations to predict both the probability of donation (discrete choice) and the amount of each donation given based on the individual donation history and information provided about the ask amounts sent to that donor.I will apply your formulas to a holdout sample randomly drawn from the original dataset (the data you are given will not include any of these individual).Donation Probabilities will be evaluated based on a likelihood model. I will apply your formula to the holdout data to get expected donation probabilities. The likelihood for each donor is your probability (p) if they donated and 1-p if they did not. I will multiply the likelihoods across the holdout sample to get a score. Highest likelihood wins. The predictions for contribution amounts will be scored based on Mean Absolute Deviation. The team with the lowest MAD, mean absolute deviation, will win.You will want to construct your own holdout samples to do model selection for this assignment,

## Assignment Description

BUS 473

Forecasting Contest – Alumni Donations

Due November 8

The object of the project is to forecast IIT alumni donations to the annual giving campaign in Fall of 2014, using data from past donation history, demographics and information about the ask strings in mailed solicitations.

You may build a forecasting model using the dataset in the CSV file donations on Blackboard. The dataset contains records of the donations returned by each alumnus during the period from September 2014 to January 2015. Donations are categorized by which campaign the donor responded to (Mail, Phone or website).

You are to provide separate equations to predict both the probability of donation (discrete choice) and the amount of each donation given based on the individual donation history and information provided about the ask amounts sent to that donor.

I will apply your formulas to a holdout sample randomly drawn from the original dataset (the data you are given will not include any of these individual).

Donation Probabilities will be evaluated based on a likelihood model. I will apply your formula to the holdout data to get expected donation probabilities. The likelihood for each donor is your probability (p) if they donated and 1-p if they did not. I will multiply the likelihoods across the holdout sample to get a score. Highest likelihood wins. The predictions for contribution amounts will be scored based on Mean Absolute Deviation. The team with the lowest MAD, mean absolute deviation, will win.

You will want to construct your own holdout samples to do model selection for this assignment,

Teams will be ranked in order of combined scores, and graded accordingly.

Means for the dataset donations are below

Variable

Mean

Std Dev

Minimum

Maximum

N

 ID Mail Gifts CnGf_1_Amount Left Middle Right Largest Last LGDate FY13 FY14
 242462 0.209034 0.350312 38.0183 284.947 195.074 108.157 189.999 84.067 19561.6 62.8279 63.985
 403006 0.406716 0.477182 74.9142 311.765 203.687 104.116 3017.95 85.951 246.071 87.7287 87.704
 2277 0 0 0 50 25 10 1 0.77 18372 0 0
 1.04036e+06 1 1 700 2500 1500 500 137004 800 19874 800 500
 2081 2081 2081 2081 2081 2081 2081 2081 2081 2081 2081 2081

Note: This data is confidential to the university. Please do not share it with anyone outside the class and remove from your storage when the assignment is completed.

## Assignment Description

Key for Donations Database

The Database contains response data from a mailing to 2081 IIT alumni.

ID – unique id no for recipient

Mail – dummy indicated whether a mail donation was received

Gifts – dummy indicating whether any donation was received (includes Phonathon pledges)

CnGf_1_Amount – total amount of gifts, if any

TestGroup1 – treatment assignment

Gender (Male/Female)

St – State of Residence

Class – year degree was awarded

Left – largest ask amount in solicitation

Largest – amount of largest previous gift (5 years)

Last - amount of most recent gift

LGDate – Last Gift Date – when most recent donation was recieved

FY13 amount donated in 2013

FY14 amount donated in 2014

Calculation (Random variable to separate training and holdout samples – should be 1 for training sample)

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